New model ensemble reveals how forcing uncertainty and model structure alter climate simulated across CMIP generations of the Community Earth System Model
Climate simulation uncertainties arise from internal variability, model structure, and external forcings. These uncertainty sources are difficult to disentangle across model generations because both model structure and external forcings typically change. This preprint , led by Marika Holland, presents new ensemble simulations which allow for the separation of uncertainty sources between two large ensembles (LEs) of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Importantly, we find a strong influence of historical forcing uncertainty in differences between CESM1-LE and CESM2-LE due to aerosol effects on simulated climate.
